Gold Holds Above $4,600 as Fed Hawks Push Back on Cuts

Gold extended its gains to trade near $4,601 on Thursday, shrugging off a string of hawkish Fed comments at Jackson Hole and a stronger-than-expected jobs report. With Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote and a widening US trade deficit both in focus, bullion is holding steady just below key resistance as traders wait for the next real catalyst.

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its gains on Thursday, edging up 0.17% to trade around $4,601, even as a batch of solid US jobs data and a wave of hawkish Fed commentary gave the metal every reason to pull back. Instead, gold barely flinched — a sign that traders are more focused on Friday's main event than on Thursday's data or rhetoric.

A Strong Jobs Report Couldn't Shake Gold Loose

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dipped from 207,000 to 203,000, below the 208,000 forecast, according to the US Department of Labor — a sign of continued labor market strength that would typically support the Dollar and pressure gold. At the same time, the US trade deficit widened sharply, from $101.4 billion to $118.8 billion in July, according to the US Census Bureau.

The Hormuz Deal That May Not Actually Count

Geopolitics added another layer of uncertainty. According to the New York Post, citing a US official, the Iran-Oman deal on the Strait of Hormuz "doesn't matter." An IRGC spokesman confirmed that both parties did reach an agreement on Wednesday, but noted it remains subject to internal approval and, notably, lacks US recognition. That gap between what's been agreed and what's actually been validated is keeping a piece of geopolitical risk premium in play — and that uncertainty is one of the things helping gold stay supported.

Fed Officials Line Up Behind Higher-for-Longer

Gold's resilience is even more notable given how hawkish the Fed's own officials sounded heading into the Jackson Hole Symposium. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the time to act on persistent inflation is now. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid described inflation as still stubborn and still sticky, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee named inflation as his top concern. Normally, a chorus like that would weigh on gold, since it points toward higher rates staying in place longer. This time, the metal shrugged it off.

All eyes are now on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is known for opposing forward guidance to markets — meaning he's unlikely to spell out a clear rate path directly. Still, any remarks he makes about the broader economy could offer hints about where policy is headed. As it stands, money markets are pricing a 68% chance the Fed holds rates unchanged at the September 16 meeting, while for December, traders are leaning toward an actual rate hike, with odds at 72%, according to Prime Terminal.

The Dollar Isn't Budging Either

The US Dollar Index (DXY) held steady at 99.14 after two days of strong data releases. The Greenback has recovered some ground recently, as Core PCE data showed inflation running stickier than expected and still well off the Fed's 2% target. Friday's US economic calendar brings both the Warsh speech and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report — two releases that could finally break the current standoff between gold, the Dollar, and rate expectations.

The Technical Picture

Gold has climbed back above $4,600, but it remains shy of a decisive break higher. Momentum is bullish but not strong enough, based on the Relative Strength Index, to push the metal toward a retest of its weekly highs near $4,697 — pointing to further sideways action while traders stay uncertain about the next directional move.

On the upside, the first key resistance sits at the psychological $4,650 mark, followed by $4,700, and then May 7's peak at $4,764. On the downside, the first support is $4,600 itself; a breach would expose the August 24 daily low of $4,594. A daily close beneath that level would open the path toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average at $4,376, ahead of the August 19 swing low at $4,324 and then $4,300.

What This Means for Gold

Gold's ability to hold above $4,600 despite strong jobs data and hawkish Fed rhetoric says something important: traders aren't trading today's headlines, they're positioning for Friday's. With Warsh's stance still unknown and the Hormuz deal's legitimacy genuinely in question, gold is essentially parked in a holding pattern — supported enough to avoid a real pullback, but not confident enough to push through resistance either. That makes the next 24 hours far more important than anything that's happened this week so far.

What Traders Should Prepare For

Watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Friday remarks closely — even without explicit forward guidance, tone and emphasis could move both gold and the Dollar.
Track the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment release Friday for another read on how households are viewing the economy and inflation.
Monitor whether the US formally recognizes the Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement; without that recognition, the geopolitical risk premium in gold is unlikely to fully unwind.
Keep an eye on the September 16 and December Fed meeting odds, since a shift toward the priced-in December hike could quickly change gold's risk-reward setup.
Watch $4,600 as the key level to hold on the downside, and $4,650 as the level that needs to break for gold to build fresh upside momentum.

Strong jobs data, hawkish Fed officials, a shaky Hormuz deal — gold shrugged off all of it. That kind of calm usually means the market is waiting for one voice in particular, and it's speaking Friday.